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The sixth UNEP Emissions Gap Report provides a scientific assessment of the impacts of the submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) on anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Like in the previous reports, this year’s report then compares the resulting emission level in 2030 with what science tells us is required to be on track towards the agreed political target of a temperature increase no more than 2°C by the end of the century. The report also provides data for the aspirational target of an increase below 1.5°C. In addition the report analyzes selected areas where enhanced action can be taken and how these actions can be accelerated and scaled up to close the ‘gap’. The following key questions are addressed:

  • What are the latest estimates of long-term emissions consistent with the target of holding the global temperature rise within 2°C/1.5°C above pre-industrial levels?
  • What is the progress on implementation of the ‘Copenhagen Pledges’ and other national commitments
  • Will the combined INDCs for 2030 (if fully implemented) be enough to stay within the emission range required to be consistent with the temperature target?
  • What are possible contributions in some of the key areas where action can be accelerated to enhance the ambition of national pledges both in the period before 2020 and after 2020? This year, International Cooperative Initiatives (ICIs) and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) have been in the focus of the assessment. In addition an update is provided on the areas assessed in the earlier reports.


MEDIA RESOURCES

UNEP Chief Scientist, Jacqueline McGlade, presents the key findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2015
Press Release:
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Press Conference
UNEP - Press Conference outlining global progress on cutting emissions (Geneva, 6 November 2015)
FURTHER RESOURCES

Gap side event at COP-21
Key findings of the UNEP Adaptation Finance Gap Update and the UNEP Emissions Gap Report
Date: Friday 4 December 2015
Time: 18:30 - 20:00
Venue: Room Brussels, EU Pavilion, Blue Zone, Le Bourget, Paris
Provisional agenda


Presentation by Lead Authors at the UNFCCC COP 21 side event (Paris, 4 December 2015)


Joint side-event of UNFCCC and UNEP
Presentation of UNEP 2015 Emissions Gap Report
Date: Monday, 7 December 2015
Time: 13:15 - 14:45
Venue: Room Observer Room 3, Le Bourget, Paris
Agenda

Countries having submitted INDCs

  1. Afghanistan
  2. Albania
  3. Algeria
  4. Andorra
  5. Angola
  6. Antigua and Barbuda
  7. Argentina
  8. Armenia
  9. Australia
  10. Azerbaijan
  11. Bahamas
  12. Bahrain
  13. Bangladesh
  14. Barbados
  15. Belarus
  16. Belize
  17. Benin
  18. Bhutan
  19. Bolivia (Plurinational State of)
  20. Bosnia and Herzegovina
  21. Botswana
  22. Brazil
  23. Brunei Darussalam
  24. Burkina Faso
  25. Burundi
  26. Cabo Verde
  27. Cambodia
  28. Cameroon
  29. Canada
  30. Central African Republic
  31. Chad
  32. Chile
  33. China
  34. Colombia
  35. Comoros
  36. Congo
  37. Cook Islands
  38. Costa Rica
  39. Cote d'Ivoire
  40. Cuba
  41. Democratic Republic of the Congo
  42. Djibouti
  43. Dominica
  44. Dominican Republic
  45. Ecuador
  46. Egypt
  47. El Salvador
  48. Equatorial Guinea
  49. Eritrea
  50. Ethiopia
  51. Fiji
  52. Gabon
  53. Gambia
  54. Georgia
  55. Ghana
  56. Grenada
  57. Guatemala
  58. Guinea
  59. Guinea Bissau
  60. Guyana
  61. Haiti
  62. Honduras
  63. Iceland
  64. India
  65. Indonesia
  66. Iran
  67. Iraq
  68. Israel
  69. Jamaica
  70. Japan
  71. Jordan
  72. Kazakhstan
  73. Kenya
  74. Kiribati
  75. Krygyzstan
  76. Kuwait
  77. Lao People's Democratic Republic
  78. Latvia and the European Commission on behalf of the European Union and its Member States
  79. Lebanon
  80. Lesotho
  81. Liberia
  82. Liechtenstein
  83. Madagascar
  84. Malawi
  85. Malaysia
  86. Maldives
  87. Mali
  88. Marshall Islands
  89. Mauritania
  90. Mauritius
  91. Mexico
  92. Micronesia
  93. Monaco
  94. Mongolia
  95. Montenegro
  96. Morocco
  97. Mozambique
  98. Myanmar
  99. Namibia
  100. Nauru
  101. Nepal
  102. New Zealand
  103. Niger
  104. Nigeria
  105. Niue
  106. Norway
  107. Oman
  108. Pakistan
  109. Palau
  110. Panama
  111. Papua New Guinea
  112. Paraguay
  113. Peru
  114. Philipphines
  115. Qatar
  116. Republic of Korea
  117. Republic of Moldova
  118. Russian Federation
  119. Rwanda
  120. Saint Kitts and Nevis
  121. Saint Lucia
  122. Saint Vincent and Grenadines
  123. Samoa
  124. San Marino
  125. Sao Tome and Principe
  126. Saudi Arabia
  127. Senegal
  128. Serbia
  129. Seychelles
  130. Sierra Leone
  131. Singapore
  132. Solomon Islands
  133. Somalia
  134. South Africa
  135. South Sudan
  136. Sri Lanka
  137. Sudan
  138. Suriname
  139. Swaziland
  140. Switzerland
  141. Tajikistan
  142. Thailand
  143. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
  144. Togo
  145. Tonga
  146. Trinidad and Tobago
  147. Tunisia
  148. Turkey
  149. Turkmenistan
  150. Tuvalu
  151. Uganda
  152. Ukraine
  153. United Arab Emirates
  154. United Republic of Tanzania
  155. United States of America
  156. Uruguay
  157. Vanuatu
  158. Venezuela
  159. Viet Nam
  160. Yemen
  161. Zambia
  162. Zimbabwe



Climate commitments of subnational actions (UNEP, 2015)

International Cooperative Initiatives (ICI's) hold significant promise for raising the level of emission reduction ambition needed to close the global emissions gap to 2020 impacting national and international climate change commitments.


Distribution of ICIs across thematic areas


UNEP Methodology

Sixteen major initiatives in the areas of cities and regions, companies and sectors such as energy efficiency, methane, agriculture, forestry and finance have been analyzed for the report on non-state climate mitigation action. The method used to quantify the emissions reductions that would result from the initiatives depends on the form of the commitments and the information available. The reductions relative to a business-as-usual scenario that aims to take account of current government policies were calculated. In addition, the totals to account for overlaps between initiatives, both in the same sector and between sectors were adjusted. A final adjustment was made to calculate what is additional to government pledges for emissions reductions.


This map shows the countries involved in climate litigation or in which climate litigation is being or has been pursued. The cases involve governments, corporations and individuals.

Source: Colombia Law School


      


"REDD+" is a mechanism that considers Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, including the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in order to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries. UN REDD Programme supports national REDD+ readiness efforts in 60 partner countries. The mitigation role played by REDD+ will feature in the last chapter of the EGR 2015 (to be released in November 2015).

Other partner countries:

  1. Benin
  2. Bhutan
  3. Burkina Faso
  4. Cameroon
  5. Central African Republic (the)
  6. Chad
  7. Chile
  8. Costa Rica
  9. Dominican Republic
  10. El Salvador
  11. Equatorial Guinea
  12. Ethiopia
  13. Fiji
  14. Gabon
  15. Ghana
  16. Guatemala
  17. Guinea
  18. Guinea Bissau
  19. Guyana
  20. India
  21. Jamaica
  22. Kenya
  23. Lao Peoples’ Democratic Republic (the)
  24. Liberia
  25. Madagascar
  26. Malawi
  27. Malaysia
  28. Mexico
  29. Morocco
  30. Myanmar
  31. Nepal
  32. Pakistan
  33. Peru
  34. Samoa
  35. South Sudan
  36. Sudan (the)
  37. Suriname
  38. Togo
  39. Tunisia
  40. Vanuatu
  41. Zimbabwe

REDD country map


UN REDD Programme methodology

The UN-REDD Programme provides technical support to countries in six interlinked work areas:

  1. Measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) and monitoring;
  2. National REDD+ governance;
  3. Transparent, equitable and accountable management of REDD+ funds;
  4. Engagement of Indigenous Peoples (IP), civil society and other stakeholders;
  5. Ensuring multiple benefits of forests and REDD+;
  6. REDD+ as a catalyst for transformations to a green economy through the Global Programme – Support to National Action and National Programmes.
This support is mainly divided in 2 components:
  1. Support to National REDD+ Action: Global Programme Framework 2011-2015 (SNA) to develop common approaches, data and analyses to support them on the way to REDD+ readiness
  2. National Programmes (NPs) are technical cooperation initiatives provided by the UN-REDD Programme at national level.
They are designed to support developing countries' efforts to prepare and implement comprehensive national REDD+ strategies and serve countries' REDD+ readiness needs.


Support to National REDD+ Action

National Programme Performance Data

Support to national programs

Overview of Targeted support

*Latin America and the Caribbean

         

                 


The Country Level Impacts of Climate Change (CLICC) project is supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). The project is work closely with the Global Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA). CLICC was initiated with the aim to develop a common process for countries to present the impacts of climate change at the national level, drawing on existing national assessments and other research material.

There is currently no international process for consistent communication of similar information at the national level to aid global understanding of national impacts. Assessment methodologies are extremely diverse and studies are presented in many different ways, making it difficult to share and compare their results and it can be challenging to attempt a synthesis at the country level, given absences of common approaches, preferred timescales, descriptions of sectors, etc. International cooperation on cross-border impacts can be especially challenging when assessments in different countries lack consistency or transparency in respect of assumptions and methods.

Previous studies have shown that greater consistency in the assessment and communication of climate impacts and vulnerabilities at a country level is both possible and desirable. The CLICC project is now addressing this. CLICC is facilitating global understanding of country-level impacts to support action on climate change. The CLICC initiative is not emphasizing a one-off suite of products but rather the participation of countries in a longer-term process which may evolve to take account of new information and developments.

The CLICC project is viewed as a step forward from previous work funded by the UK Government's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), known as the Durban Project, undertaken by the Met Office in 2011.

The United Kingdom's Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change requested the Met Office Hadley Centre to compile scientifically robust and impartial information on the physical impacts of climate change for more than 20 countries in April 2011. A report on the observations, projections and impacts of climate change has been prepared for each country.

The potential impacts of climate change, based on results from the UK's Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change programme (AVOID) and supporting literature.

For more information: http://www.unep.org/provia/Default.aspx?tabid=1060147


Countries involved in the Durban project

  1. Argentina
  2. Australia
  3. Bangladesh
  4. Brazil
  5. China
  6. Egypt
  7. France
  8. Germany
  9. India
  10. Indonesia
  11. Italy
  12. Japan
  13. Kenya
  14. Mexico
  15. Peru
  16. Republic of Korea
  17. Russian Federation
  18. Saudi Arabia
  19. South Africa
  20. Spain
  21. Turkey
  22. United Kingdom
  23. United States of America

For country reports and factsheets, click on map below

CLICC country map


UNEP Methodology and partners

Phase 1 of CLICC, completed in December 2014, explored the level of support for the concept of consistent presentation of climate-level impacts and set the foundations for the project through consultations with government officials and national experts from around 30 countries. The CLICC project team are now working with these countries to begin to develop a process in which national climate impacts can be presented in a standardised way. Current and potential participant countries represent a range of levels of economic development and geographies, including islands, deserts, mountainous, land-locked and coastal regions.

Phase 2 of the project, which started in January 2015, will :

  • Investigate how to achieve a more standardised approach that is scientifically robust and flexible to the contexts of different countries.
  • Consider how long-term sustainability could be achieved through an appropriate international organisation and supported by appropriate funding mechanisms.

Importantly, the project is creating an inclusive process that responds to the needs and aspirations of participant countries and the international community. Based on the dialogue that the project team have had with participating countries there are a number of overarching principles emerging which will guide the development of plans and options for CLICC in Phase 2:

  • Clarity of purpose
  • Ensure country control
  • Maximise inclusivity
  • Minimise burden
  • Promote good practice


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